Tag Archives: Exit poll

ABP News-Nielsen HP Exit Poll BJP, Congress neck and neck fight in Himachal Pradesh election 2012

ABP News-Nielsen HP Exit Poll BJP, Congress neck and neck fight in Himachal Pradesh election 2012

There is a change of tie between BJP and congress.
Himachal Pradesh is facing a tough battle to douse the anti-incumbency sentiments in order to remain in power.
BJP is likely to win 32 seats in the 68 -member Assembly

Congress will also win 32 seat

while other will win 4 seats

HP Election vote counting and results will declared on 20th december 2012

Himachal Pradesh Exit Poll 2012 NEWS 24 & chanakya 17 dec 2012

Himachal Pradesh Exit Poll 2012 NEWS 24 & chanakya 17 dec 2012

Congress Gaining is going to form next government in HP Poll 2012 exit poll

Party    Expected Seat
BJP      31(-10)
Congress 34(-11)
Other    3

Congress is all set to return to power in Himachal Pradesh as per the News 24-Today’s Chanakya exit poll. The Congress is set to win 40 seats (plus or minus 7 seats) while the BJP will be reduced to 23 seats (plus or minus 7 seats),

Congress stalwart Virbhadra Singh is miles ahead of chief minister and BJP leader Prem Kumar Dhumal according to the News 24-Today’s Chanakya exit poll.

BJP returns in Madhya Pradesh & Chhattisgarh in NDTV Mid-Term Poll 2012

BJP returns in Madhya Pradesh & Chhattisgarh ::

NDTV Ipsos Mid-Term Poll 2012 Election Survey
Source http://www.ndtv.com/article/india/ndtv-mid-term-poll-2012-will-bjp-vasundhara-raje-make-a-comeback-in-rajasthan-261688

Telangana Rashtra Samithi, which is spearheading the statehood agitation is slated to bag a majority of the seats in the region. While YSR Congress party is set to sweep the Rayalaseema and Coastal Andhra.

2/3rd majority to BJP in Gujarat, 84% say Modi govt good. Will BJP, Vasundhara Raje make a comeback in Rajasthan?

NDTV commissioned Ipsos, a leading market research agency, to conduct fieldwork for this opinion poll from a sample size of almost 30,000, covering as many as 125 out of the 543 Lok Sabha seats in the 18 big states.

The poll was carried out in 125 constituencies spread over 18 states (these account for over 20% of the 543 Lok Sabha seats). Each Lok Sabha constituency was selected using a statistical formula based on voting patterns of 2009 Lok Sabha Elections

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यूपी में बन सकती है सपा की सरकार: सर्वे

चुनाव बाद हेडलाइंस टुडे के सर्वे के अनुसार उत्तर प्रदेश में फिर से समाजवादी पार्टी सत्ता में आ रही है. सर्वे के अनुसार समाजवादी पार्टी को 195-210 सीटें मिल सकती हैं.

सर्वे के अनुसार मायावती की बहुजन समाज पार्टी को इन चुनावों में मुंह की खानी पड़ेगी और उसे केवल 88-98 सीटों से संतोष करना पड़ सकता है. इस तरह उसे करीब 100 सीटों का नुकसान उठाना पड़ेगा.

यूपी में समाजवादी पार्टी के लिए अखिलेश यादव निश्चित रूप से करिश्‍माई शख्सियत बनकर उभरे हैं और इन चुनावों में पार्टी को उसका फायदा भी मिलता दिख रहा है जिसकी बदौलत सपा मायावती की बीएसपी को सत्ता से बेदखल कर यूपी में सरकार बनाने जा रही है.

सर्वे के अनुसार कांग्रेस के लिए राहुल गांधी का जादू काम नहीं आ सकेगा और पार्टी को 38-42 सीटों से संतोष करना पड़ सकता है. फिर भी पिछले चुनावों की तुलना में कांग्रेस को करीब 10 सीटों का फायदा मिलता दिख रहा है.

लेकिन राहुल गांधी ने जिस तरह यूपी चुनावों को आन का मुद्दा बना लिया था उसे देखकर को यही लगता है कि उनकी सारी मेहनत बेकार होने जा रही है. कांग्रेस को अजीत सिंह के राष्‍ट्रीय लोकदल से गठबंधन का भी कुछ खास लाभ मिलता नहीं दिख रहा.

बीजेपी को भी इन चुनावों में कुछ खास फायदा होता नहीं दिख रहा है हालांकि पार्टी को कुछ सीटों का फायदा हो सकता है और उसे 50-56 सीटें मिल सकती हैं

Sensex ends special session on flat note, UP poll results eyed

MUMBAI: The Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensex ended the special live trading session on a flat note due to lack of active participation from investors. Trades done today shall be settled on March 6, 2012, as a separate settlement.

According to analysts, the market is likely to consolidate for next few weeks ahead of key events like outcome of UP assembly elections and Union budget.

“It seems like we made a short term peak at 5600 in the near term ahead of the key events that are likely to unfold in March starting with UP election results next week. Then we have the Railway and the Union Budgets and in between the credit policy as well. Now markets have taken a somewhat positive view on the outcome of all these events ahead. Going into these events the fact that we have corrected a bit is somewhat positive.

I see a month of consolidation ahead of us and bit of volatility that we have already seen is likely to continue based on the various outcomes of the various events that we have talked about,” said Amitabh Sonthalia, MD & CEO, SKS Fincap to ET Now.

The Sensex ended flat at 17636.99, up 0.19 points. It touched intraday high of 17676.83 and low of 17617.88.

The National Stock Exchange’s Nifty closed at 5359.40, up 0.05 points. The broader index touched a high of 5369.60 and low of 5353.40 in trade today.

BSE Midcap Index was up 0.22 per cent and BSE Smallcap Index moved 0.37 per cent higher.

BSE Power Index moved 0.35 per cent higher, BSE IT Index gained 0.25 per cent and BSE Bankex advanced 0.21 per cent. BSE Realty Index fell 0.38 per cent, BSE Auto Index slipped 0.16 per cent and BSE Capital Goods Index was down 0.15 per cent.

Cipla (-1%), Bajaj Auto (-0.99%), Sterlite Industries(-0.88%), NTPC (-0.62%) and Bharti Airtel (-0.61%) were the major Sensex losers.

Shares of DLF continued to witness selling pressure after Vertias Investment Research, a Canadian research frim, put a ‘Sell’ recommendation on the stock and valued it at Rs 100 a piece.

Shares of ONGC were trading below the floor price of Rs 290 per share set for auction sale after the company got lukewarm response.

“ONGC is usually traded at 9 to 10 times multiple and it is coming under pressure right now because of the event which was not very satisfactory and I am sure there are disappointed set of investors who are sitting with an immediate loss.

On the other hand if we see there are couple of events which could decide the stock’s movement. One is oil subsidy decision and if that is not too damaging that will be good for ONGC because it should make more money in the time of rising crude prices.

Secondly the pending acquisition of Cove Energy on the London market if that works out that is fundamentally a positive thing for the company and that will also give a trigger for the stock to go up so I would say one should watch out for another three-four weeks to decide the course of ONGC stock but I believe that the damage for now is done and the stock should not go down much from here,” said Jigar Shah, Senior VP and Head of Research, Kimeng Securities India to ET Now.

Tata Power (1.09%), Jindal Steel (0.52%), Infosys Technologies (0.45%), Sun Pharmaceuticals (0.41%) andHDFC Bank (0.33%) were the major gainers.

Market breadth was positive on the BSE with 887 gainers against 605 losers.

 

Source:http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/market-news/sensex-ends-special-session-on-flat-note-up-poll-results-eyed/articleshow/12121758.cms

UP Polls 2012: Maths of multi-cornered political battle

Two month long exciting phase of elections in India’s five states has finally come to an end. These elections have been a nightmare for the poll pundits and are expected to throw up interesting results. Five states going to polls are Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, Goa and the most crucial state – Uttar Pradesh.

These elections have virtually puzzled the electorate more so the poll pundits. In Punjab after nearly five decades, a ruling party, the SAD-BJP combine under political veteran Prakash Singh Badal has dared to shrug-off anti-incumbency; in the hill state of Uttarakhand its BJP CM BC Khanduri’s “Mr clean image” Vs the Congress which is hoping for a comeback this time.

In the North-East, the violent state of Manipur may see incumbent Congress Chief Minister Okram Ibobi retaining power; while Goa in West India another Congress Chief Minister, Digambar Kamat faces an uphill task with a series of mining scandals in his state.

But perhaps the most fascinating and interesting political battles of all times is being fought in the plains of Uttar Pradesh; which is witnessing a fierce multi-cornered fight between BSP, SP, BJP and Congress. What will be the results of the Uttar Pradesh Elections? As UP’s 7- phase long polling comes to an end here are sense of what is happening at the ground.

What is Samajwadi Party’s top?

It is now an open secret that Samajwadi Party is all set to be the single largest party. But by how much? Let’s take a look. Reports seem to indicate as expected SP has done quite well in the first 5 phases. Under Akhilesh Yadav, this strong Yadav dominated party seems to have won back the Muslim vote bank it lost massively in the 2009 Lok Sabha after it inducted Kalyan Singh into the party.

SP seems to have done particularly well in the third phase and upstaged BSP in places such as Sultanpur, Allahabad, Jaunpur, Varanasi and Mirzapur. In the 6th phase which is mainly Western UP, SP seems to have lost a bit of steam. But in the last phase SP is poised to do relatively well in Muslim dominated areas such as Moradabad, Rampur and Bareilly. So if all goes well SP could well hit the 150-160 range.

BJP could be the real surprise?

But the real surprise in these elections could well be the BJP. For BJP president, Nitin Gadkari – Uttar Pradesh is the ultimate acid test; especially after his decision to make Uma Bharti, someone considered an outsider in party’s state unit, as the party’s chief ministerial face. Reports seem to suggest the BJP may actually be doing very well. It has picked up steam from the 2nd phase and right till the 7th phase the party is doing remarkably well in virtually all pockets.

At many places the Muslim votes have got split between other parties which could propel BJP’s rise.

But behind BJP’s surprise gain there seems to be a Congress hand. Congress leaders’ frequent remarks both on Muslim reservation and imposing president’s rule in UP, have not only served to dampen the party workers at the grass-root level but also not gone down well with the UP electorate. Muslim reservation remarks seem to have polarized the Hindu OBC vote bank which might have gravitated towards the BJP. The party might have drawn criticism for inducting scam tainted NRHM tainted Babu Singh Kushwaha into its fold. But the move seems to have paid off for the BSP.

If the BJP maintains it steam as seen (or rather unseen by the media) throughout all the phases in the last phase also some surprising results could emerge which could propel the party somewhere between 85 to 90 seats.

Rahul’s charm might not be enough?

After initial euphoria weaved around its poster boy Rahul Gandhi, the Congress seems to have realized that the ground realities in UP political turf are too complex for it to convert its vote share into seats. Congress has gained largely in polling percentage but not made a remarkable surprise in terms as seats as expected earlier.

Further, to make matters worse, Rahul’s “good work” seems to have been undone largely by frequent and unwarranted remarks by senior Congress leaders such as Salman Khurshid, Sri Prakash Jaiswal and Digvijaya Singh. So much so that after the 6th phase polling the state Congress President Rita Bahuguna went on record to say that “too many media comments” were not good.

If Digvijaya Singh’s repeated remarks on Batla house encounter not only polarized votes to BJP’s advantage it also sent confusing signals to the Muslim electorate, especially in Azamgarh where Muslims got gravitated towards the Samajwadi Party, the Ulema Council and the Peace party.

While Sriprakash Jaiswal’s president rule in UP statement hit the party badly in the crucial 5th phase, Salman Khurshid’s remarks on minority reservation not only helped the BJP, it might also come as a personal setback for the senior Congress leader. In Farukkhabad Sadar seat, Law Minister Salman Khurshid’s wife Louis Khurshid now faces a virtual uphill task as Hindu votes have got polarized after this remark while Muslim votes seems have split.

Congress also seems to have maintained a status-quo in the Gandhi family bastion – Sultanpur and Amethi where Congress’s start campaigner Priyanka Gandhi who virtually camped for several weeks failed to propel the party. In 2007 BSP had captured several seats in this Nehru-Gandhi bastion. Now just the reverse is about to happen. SP seems to be doing well here.

Congress’ only ray of hope is its alliance with RLD. Congress is doing relatively (read relatively) well in West UP along with Ajit Singh. But the question is. Will that be enough? Congress by all means is all set to hover in the range of 55 to 60 combined with RLD.

BSP getting wiped off?

So with three major parties gaining, SP getting the lions share, while national parties such as Congress and BJP both set to stretch their tally, there are no rewards for guessing who is the big loser. It is quite apparent that BSP which came in with a massive and clear majority in 2007 has suffered the worst blow.

If poll indications are true (they are not always) these elections are not about a Pro-Samajwadi Party wave as suggested by many, but they are more about a massive Anti-Mayawati wave.

The elections seem to have seriously damaged the BSP. But by how much it is not clear. There seem to have been a massive anti-incumbency not only against Mayawati – especially in the middle and upper classes for all the money she spent on parks and statues – but also against her MLAs.

Mayawati did try some damage control at the last minute and made amendments replacing such “tainted candidates”. But it all seems to be come too late; or worst in many places it proved counter productive. One example is Mirzapur, where Mayawati first cut the ticket of her sitting MLA and Brahmin minister after he was indicted in the Lokayukta report and replaced him with a Muslim candidate. But in the last few days of filing her nomination Mayawati again replaced the Muslim candidate and brought back Mishra. This not only hurt the sentiment of the Muslims but also helped other parties. Worse, these last minute changes have been many and at several places, hurt the BSP badly.

But the big question is how much Mayawati falling to? Will she be wiped out? Can she ever be wiped out?

While there has been no doubt that these is a massive anti-incumbency against Mayawati and voter turnout has been the highest since independence, are these two factors enough to slide Mayawati below the 100 mark?

The question is tough and the answer is even tougher. Dalit voters are known be “silent voters” and often best of poll analysts can fail to read this ‘quite undercurrent’.

There is no doubt BSP cadres have been the best organized and BSP’s poll preparations began way ahead of others, but it is her calculations that seem to have undone the BSP Supremo. Though reports from the ground suggest fewer seats to BSP, Mayawati – with dalits solidly behind her – could finally rest around 90 to 110.

Source:http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/politics/up-polls-2012-mathsmulti-cornered-political-battle_676159.html

Polling for Goa Assembly election begins

Panaji: Voting began this morning in Goa to elect a new 40-member Assembly amidst tight security.

The polling started at 7 AM.

A total of 10.25 lakh voters, spread over two districts – North Goa and South Goa – are will exercise their franchise at 1,612 polling booths, which will be manned by 10,644 security personnel, officials said.

The fate of 215 candidates, including nine women and 74 independents would be decided. Two major alliances – ruling Congress-NCP alliance and Opposition BJP-MGP combination – are the main contenders for power in the tiny coastal state.

For the first time in Goa, the Election Commission (EC) has introduced a monitoring system wherein photographs and fingerprints of all voters will be captured on computers.

The EC has identified 180 polling booths as sensitive where additional forces will be deployed.

In the 2007 Assembly polls, Congress had won 16 seats and formed the Government with the help of NCP (3), Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (2) and some Independents.

BJP had won 14 seats.

This time, Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP), Goa’s oldest regional outfit, has withdrawn from the Congress-led alliance and joined hands with Opposition BJP.

 

Source:http://zeenews.india.com/state-elections-2012/goa/

exit polls bans from 28 Jan to 3 Mar 2012

The Election Commission of India has banned exit polls during the entire period when elections to the five state Assemblies would be held.

In a statement here, Chief Electoral Officer, Uttarakhand, Radha Raturi said that in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Representation of the People Act, 1951, the Election Commission of India has notified the period between 7am on 28 January, 2012 and 5.30 pm on 3 March, 2012 as the period during which conducting any exit poll or disseminating the result of any exit poll would be prohibited.

While 28 January is the first day of polling in Manipur, 3 March is the last day of polling in Goa and Uttar Pradesh.

Raturi said that under the provisions, displaying any election matter, including results of any opinion poll or any
other poll survey, in any electronic media, would be prohibited.