Category Archives: Exit Poll 2012

ABP News-Nielsen HP Exit Poll BJP, Congress neck and neck fight in Himachal Pradesh election 2012

ABP News-Nielsen HP Exit Poll BJP, Congress neck and neck fight in Himachal Pradesh election 2012

There is a change of tie between BJP and congress.
Himachal Pradesh is facing a tough battle to douse the anti-incumbency sentiments in order to remain in power.
BJP is likely to win 32 seats in the 68 -member Assembly

Congress will also win 32 seat

while other will win 4 seats

HP Election vote counting and results will declared on 20th december 2012

Today chanakya & NEWS 24 gujarat exit poll 17 december 2012

Gujarat exit poll results 2012 on 17th 2012

exit poll conducted by Today chanakya & NEWS 24 gujarat exit poll 17 december 2012

 

Best CM for Gujarat Narendra Modi 83% in exit poll

Shanker Singh Vaghela 9%

Shati Singh 4%

chanakya gujarat exit poll vote percentage of BJP and Seat won by BJP
IS MODI repeat the 3rd term in Gujarat Election 2012

exit poll results of gujarat 2012 december 17th at 5:15 PM

Gujarat polls live: 55 per cent voter turnout till 3 pm, BJP candidate held
HP exit poll 2012 at 5:30 pm

gujarat elections till 4:00 pm is 62%

abp news gujarat assembly election 2012 exit poll 17.12.2012

ABP news gujarat assembly election 2012 exit poll 17.12.2012

Expected seat win by BJP, Congress and GPP Election Results, Gujarat exit poll News, Gujarat exit poll analysis

Gujarat election exit poll, Gujarat ELECTION SURVEY RESULT

Voting percentage till 3:pm is 55%

gujarat elections till 4:00 pm is 60%

 

64% recorded till 4:30 pm at Gujarat Election second phase 2012

NDTV election survey 2012 : 2/3rd majority to BJP in Gujarat Poll 2012

Indian News Channel NDTV election survey 2012 : Narendra Modi will repeat his 3rd term.
2/3rd majority to BJP in Gujarat Poll 2012 ndtv election survey india

Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi is being favoured above Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) LK Advani as the party’s choice for the next Indian Prime Minister, said a “mid-term poll survey” by NDTV.

The poll was carried out in 125 constituencies spread over 18 states (these account for over 20% of the 543 Lok Sabha seats).

NDTV has predicted 2/3rd majority(120+ seats) for Modi in Gujarat based on its survey.

As per the NDTV survey out of total 26 Lok Sabha seats suggests 16 seats for BJP and 10 for Congress.

At present BJP has 15 seats while Congress 11 in Gujarat in 2009 Lok sabha election

 

BJP returns in Madhya Pradesh & Chhattisgarh in NDTV Mid-Term Poll 2012

BJP returns in Madhya Pradesh & Chhattisgarh ::

NDTV Ipsos Mid-Term Poll 2012 Election Survey
Source http://www.ndtv.com/article/india/ndtv-mid-term-poll-2012-will-bjp-vasundhara-raje-make-a-comeback-in-rajasthan-261688

Telangana Rashtra Samithi, which is spearheading the statehood agitation is slated to bag a majority of the seats in the region. While YSR Congress party is set to sweep the Rayalaseema and Coastal Andhra.

2/3rd majority to BJP in Gujarat, 84% say Modi govt good. Will BJP, Vasundhara Raje make a comeback in Rajasthan?

NDTV commissioned Ipsos, a leading market research agency, to conduct fieldwork for this opinion poll from a sample size of almost 30,000, covering as many as 125 out of the 543 Lok Sabha seats in the 18 big states.

The poll was carried out in 125 constituencies spread over 18 states (these account for over 20% of the 543 Lok Sabha seats). Each Lok Sabha constituency was selected using a statistical formula based on voting patterns of 2009 Lok Sabha Elections

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Will Khanduri prove poll pundits wrong?

A majority of the exit polls conducted by various television news channels show that Congress has an edge over BJP in Uttarakhand. Out of the five exit polls, four have predicted that the BJP could win between 22 to 30 seats in the Uttarakhand Assembly elections. Only one exit poll projected the saffron party as the winner, predicting 39 seats for it.

If the result goes the majority way, it will be a huge setback for the saffron party.

But how was BJP placed in the last elections? Let’s flip through some quick electoral statistics.

Uttarakhand has 70 Assembly constituencies. The state has witnessed two Assembly elections so far. In the 2007 Assembly elections, the BJP won 36 seats, whereas its main opponent Congress managed to win 21, thanks to the ant-incumbency factor against the ND Tiwari-led Congress government. In the 2002 Assembly elections, BJP had won 19 seats and Congress 36. The BJP had lost power because of the anti-incumbency against Bhagat Singh Koshiyari-led interim government.

Uttarakhand has voted out incumbent governments in the two Assembly elections is has had so far.

But this time there was widespread speculation that General BC Khanduri would scrape through despite anti-incumbency. Many said it was a battle, not so tough for General Khanduri.

It was Khanduri who had led the party to victory in 2007 elections and was subsequently chosen as the Chief Minister. However, he was booted out after the party performed poorly in the 2009 general election (the BJP had lost all five Lok Sabha seats to Congress). Marred with internal dissent, amid the growing ‘Remove Khanduri’ chorus, he quit taking responsibility for the poll debacle. Ramesh Pokhariyal ‘Nishank’ was inducted as the Chief Minister. But Nishank’s tenure had pushed the saffron party to the wall amid allegations of a series of scams. A couple of months before the Assembly elections, the BJP central leadership replaced Khanduri as Chief Minister in a tearing hurry to salvage the party’s sagging image in the state.

Khanduri tried to clean up the mess done by his predecessor and put BJP back in a fighting mode. Within two months of taking over as the Chief Minister for the second time, he enacted two landmark anti-graft legislations – the Lokayukta Bill and the Right to Public Services legislation. The BJP tried to cash in on the “clean image” of Khanduri to sail through the Assembly elections.

With Khanduri back in the saddle, BJP made fight against corruption a major poll plank in this election. But the corruption from Nishank’s tenure was also haunting the BJP in the polls.

The reality was that in this Assembly election, the BJP was not only fighting against Congress, but it was a “fight within” as well.

There were two factors — Khanduri’s anti-corruption agenda and Nishank’s corruption — which had to decide BJP’s fate in Uttarakhand.

Congress’ anti-corruption babble against BJP won’t be much of a factor. As a matter of fact, as many as 70 scams from the ND Tiwari rule are still haunting the Congress.

So, will Khanduri’s anti-corruption agenda win over Nishank’s corruption saga? And if that happens, General Khanduri will certainly prove the poll pundits wrong. So wait for March 06 for the final verdict. And if it goes the other way it is the BJP which needs to be blamed.

 

Source:http://zeenews.india.com/state-elections-2012/uttarakhand/will-khanduri-prove-poll-pundits-wrong_762133.html

It’s a close call in Punjab

Throughout its history, Punjab has never voted for the same ruling dispensation consecutively. The voters in Punjab have always voted for change and the strong anti-incumbency factor has troubled the contesting parties.

Despite claims of impending victory by the ruling SAD-BJP alliance and the Congress, things on the ground remain quite uncertain for both sides as the election took place without any wave in favour or against anyone.

The guessing game has of course been compounded by the post-poll surveys of various agencies and news channels. While some are projecting the Congress as the winner of the assembly elections, some are also giving a thumbs-up for the Akalis, who too are in no mood to give up till the last vote is counted.

If the Akalis perform well, they will certainly set a new precedent in Punjab. But that is an ambitious target for the outgoing Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal, who consciously projected himself as the CM candidate ahead of the start of the polls.

With the exit polls and post-poll surveys indicating at return of the Congress to power, and if the counting of votes also proves the same, then the most likely fallout of the electoral exercise will be end of Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal’s long and illustrious political career.

If the post-poll surveys are to be believed, then Congress is expected to win over 60 seats paving way for Captain Amarinder Singh to become the Chief Minister again. But if the exit polls go wrong then Parkash Singh Badal, who has been chief minister of the state for four times will get the popular mandate for the fifth time.

According to the post-poll survey conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) suggests, the SAD-BJP combine is likely to bag between 51 and 63 seats and the Congress between 48 and 60 in the 117-seat assembly.

The CSDS survey also suggests that the vote share of the ruling alliance has also dipped by 4%. In 2007, the SAD had secured 45% of votes while the Congress got 41%. The Congress is one percentage point down.

What has further worried the Badal senior is the ground reports that the powerful religious sect Dera Sacha Sauda, that has a great hold over the 65 crucial seats in Malwa, was more inclined towards the Congress this time.

In the 2009 Lok Sabha polls, the Dera had tilted in Akali Dal’s favour. The fertile Malwa belt (areas south of Sutlej river), which has 65 assembly seats, voted in good numbers. The average voting in districts in this belt was around 80 %t (79.46 exact).

Guru Har Sahai (90 %), Gidderbaha (88.70), Malerkotla (87.71), Lambi (86), Rampura Phul (86), Faridkot (85), Sardulgarh (85), Sunam (85), Lehra (85), Ghanaur (85), Fazilka (85), Fatehgarh Sahib, Dakha, Bagha Purana, Dirba and Bhadaur (all 84 %), saw some of the heaviest polling in the Malwa belt.

In comparison, the Doaba (area between Sutlej and Beas rivers) and Majha belt (area north of Beas river) saw slightly lesser voting at an average of 76.44 and 72.15 %. The least voting, 56 %, was in the Amritsar-west seat.

The most brutal blow, though, has come to Badal from within his family. The People’s Party of Punjab (PPP), a new party floated by his estranged nephew and former SAD leader Manpreet Singh, seems to have eaten into the vote share of both the major parties.

It is likely to bag 5% of votes. The party was expected to cause major damage to the ruling combine. However, the survey finds that its impact is limited to Jat Sikhs only.

The youthful and clean image of PPP president Manpreet Badal has clicked with the electorate and the party has been able to draw the attention of youth voters in Punjab’s hinterland and towns.

PPP had tied up with the Communist parties, CPI and CPI-M, and others like Akali Dal (Longowal) to put up a third front- which is seen as a dark horse in these elections.

The PPP is also expected to dent the support for Akali Dal’s alliance partner BJP’s vote base in urban Punjab. The BJP, though, is keeping its fingers crossed about the results. A good showing by the BJP could eventually be a deciding factor for the formation of the new government. In the 2007 assembly poll, the BJP had won 19 assembly seats.

But if the BJP loses, it will certainly help Congress. Congress leaders are quite upbeat that a government led by Amarinder Singh will be in place next week itself. Ministerial aspirants and bureaucrats and officials eyeing key positions have been meeting him regularly. Importantly, the Congress had 44 legislators in the outgoing assembly.

The survey was conducted across 45 assembly seats in the first week of February and involved 3,250 respondents. The survey also recorded a reversal in voting pattern this time. Urban Punjab is likely to shift from the BJP to the Congress. Rural Malwa, which had voted for the Congress in 2007, is expected to back SAD this time. Rural Majha, a Congress stronghold which had shifted to SAD last time, is likely to return to the Congress. In Rural Doaba, which traditionally backs the SAD, the status quo remains.

The survey has also found that veteran Akali leader Parkash Singh Badal still remains the most preferred choice for the post of chief minister. Congress’ Amarinder Singh comes close second. However, his popularity is down by 5% at this time. Thirty-eight % of the respondents favored Parkash to lead the state and he still remains the most popular leader among women and farmers.

Respondents do not find his son Sukhbir Singh fit for the top job. While Amarinder is perceived more corrupt, Parkash is perceived more prone to nepotism.

The Congress leadership is pinning its hope on the damage caused to the SAD-BJP combine by the Manpreet Singh factor and Dera support to its candidates. However, the Congress party has a difficult task ahead given the bitter infighting and dissent over the faulty distribution of tickets combined with Amrinder Singh’s image of a less agrarian and more urbane leader.

 

Source:http://zeenews.india.com/state-elections-2012/punjab/it-s-a-close-call-in-punjab_762178.html